A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
