Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
