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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest improvement wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still